Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.