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As global leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30, it is essential to assess our collective progress in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite 30 years of UN climate summits, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the danger of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains overshadowed by political agendas. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the planet is remains dangerously off track to avert catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that CO₂ concentrations reached a record high of 423.9 ppm in the year 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year surging by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in 1957. Based on the Global Carbon Project, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 came from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% was due to land-use changes such as deforestation and wildfires.

While the rise in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—representing more than 50% of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also reached a historic peak, making up 41%. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake calling for nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still aim to produce more than double the quantity of fossil fuels in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of gas rationalized as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Illusion of Nature-Based Solutions

Rather than concentrating on financial motivators to speed up the phase-out of fossil fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feelgood eco-positive solutions that aim to cancel out carbon emissions by planting trees instead of reducing factory discharges. While protecting, enlarging, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, research has shown that there is insufficient territory to achieve the worldwide target of carbon neutrality using ecological methods alone.

Approximately one billion hectares—an area bigger than the USA—is required to meet net zero pledges. Over 40% of this land would need to be transformed from current applications like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Although this regenerative utopia could be achieved, forests take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they cannot be considered as a quick or lasting CO2 retention method, particularly in a fast-changing environment. As severe temperatures and aridity engulf larger regions, these well-intentioned efforts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence indicates that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is taken up by oceans and terrestrial systems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 accumulates in the air, further exacerbating climate change. Transferring the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the urgency to cut pollution any time soon.

The Climate Liability and Coming Populations

Achieving net zero by 2050 demands CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to soak up surplus CO2 from the air. Polluters can simply purchase offsets to compensate for their discharges and proceed with normal operations. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the global climate system. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To curb the scale and length of exceeding the global warming targets, the planet ultimately needs to surpass the neutralising effect of net zero and start to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about a tiny fraction of the carbon released from fossil fuels. Optimistic industry estimates suggest around zero point one percent of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the political distortion of net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our warming world—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Concrete Action

Although this research-backed truth should dominate talks at the climate summit, past events indicates that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will prevail. Vague statements of future ambition will continue to postpone the pressing requirement for definite short-term measures. Until leaders are brave enough to put a price on carbon to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, worsening the physical catastrophe now unfolding across the globe.

The challenge we confront is straightforward: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our crisis or endure the consequences of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.