🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still