Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of the Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign concerns the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how sides are netting more from dead-ball situations instead.
When we compare goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we note 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer in total.
Considering overall statistics, the number of shots clubs are making reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the big increase in set-play finishes, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts created from them outside of penalties, indicating the efficiency teams have been at finding ways to convert from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
The 301 goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures so far averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for all 38 games would be the least for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69).
Yet merely under 200 goals coming in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).
That campaign additionally represents the unique EPL campaign to witness goals scored more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).
Which Sides Are Most Responsible?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have seen the largest decrease, scoring only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.
Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's fall in goals from open play is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five out of the capital's seven sides netting a minimum of five less scores from open play than the previous year.
To be fair, this is primarily due to their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of last season as opposed to them really struggling to find the net in open play this season.
Meanwhile Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 goals to date originating in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have recorded an additional three scores in open play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 leading to the drop last season.
When it comes to scoring from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with each team replacing the five fewer scores that they've netted in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
United have netted twice as many scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches last season ahead of the manager took over, while the Black Cats again prove more effective at scoring than the club they replaced they replaced.
Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about scoring more from set-plays, because they've recorded three less than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, although this may result from the change in style they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – are the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while City stand as the sole team to go against the grain so far by achieving the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to observe if sides continue to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and begin converting additional scores in open play as well.
